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Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook

Supply: (April 2018, 16 pages)

The Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook topic paper forecasts natural gas production, gas well connections, and new gas well productivity to 2025 for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). In addition to discussions of production by gas strategy area, a more detailed gas supply allocation is provided for the Montney, Duvernay, and Deep Basin plays. These areas, covering both the west-central area of Alberta and the northeast section of British Columbia, are experiencing increased industry activity, and ongoing production growth is expected.

US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025

Supply: (March 2018, 10 pages)

The US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025 topic paper focuses on the Northeast Appalachia region, which includes the Marcellus and Utica gas plays. Topics covered include Solomon’s gas resource estimate, Marcellus and Utica gas production, new gas well productivity, well connections forecasts, as well as predicted supply/demand balance to 2025. The topic paper also covers pipeline capacities, new pipelines, and pipeline expansions in the US Northeast.

Canadian Oil Forecast to 2025

Supply: (February 2018, 16 pages)

This report forecasts both oilsands and conventional oil production to 2025 in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and East Coast. It analyzes more than 150 oilsands developments that have been announced or approved, are under construction, or are already producing. This report addresses pipeline capacity, analyzes full-cycle cost for in-situ and mining oilsands production, and provides Solomon’s assessment of CO2 emissions. The report also includes a forecast for East Coast offshore production.

North American Natural Gas Liquids Production Outlook to 2025

Supply: (January 2018, 16 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American natural gas liquids (NGL) production to 2025 for the US “Lower 48” states and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Individual forecasts are provided for the major NGL-producing regions or play areas, including the Appalachia, Eagle Ford, and Permian. NGL production outlook to 2025 for Western Canada includes NGL resource locations, NGL production forecasts, propane supply sources, and propane supply-demand balances. The report also includes a summary of major recent NGL infrastructure projects, including propane export facilities and planned major chemical projects.

North American LNG Exports to 2025

LNG: (December 2017, 14 pages)

This report provides an overview of the rapidly expanding global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market to 2025. Its focus is on the main demand regions within Asia and the competition for growing supply additions. The report also details the status of numerous liquefaction proposals in both the US and Canada. It includes information on existing commercial offtake agreements and an analysis of the full-cycle costs of delivering LNG to markets.

North American Oil and Associated Gas

Supply: (November 2017, 18 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American oil and associated gas production that is based on three of Solomon’s forecast models: our decline, new oil well productivity, and production forecast models. The forecast covers the period to 2025 and focuses primarily on the major oil supply plays. Additional detail is provided for the major basins: Bakken, Permian, Niobrara, Eagle Ford, and Gulf of Mexico Deepwater. The report also includes detailed full-cycle cost analysis and resource assessment for the growth basins.

Gas Price Basis Differentials Forecast to 2025

Price: (October 2017, 14 pages)

This report provides a forecast of North American natural gas price basis differentials for ten regional pricing points relative to Henry Hub to 2025. The forecast highlights changing regional flow patterns and provides in-depth discussions on changes to North American supply-demand allocations—due to rapidly growing Utica and Marcellus supply—and explains the resulting impact on basis differentials going forward.

Henry Hub Gas Price Outlook to 2025

Price: (September 2017, 14 pages)

This report considers both gas supply price drivers (factors that increase or decrease gas supply) and gas demand price drivers (factors that increase or decrease gas demand) in our assessment of natural gas prices. North American natural gas supply has entered an era where gas resource is essentially unconstrained, with cheaper supply generally developed and produced first. Utilizing our thorough understanding of North American full-cycle costs, Solomon believes the changing supply cost is a key influence on long-term natural gas prices in North America. Also analyzed within the report is the impact of well productivity on Henry Hub volatility and the risk that the LNG export level will have a downward impact on North American prices.

Gas Production Outlook by Basin to 2025

Supply: (August 2017, 16 pages)

This report analyzes the major gas supply basins in the US “Lower 48” based on Solomon’s gas well productivity, decline, and production forecasting models, and provides a forecast of North American gas production growth to 2025. This ground-up analysis of regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply is made available by assessing gas production at the basin level. The basins include Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Arkoma, Permian, and others. The result of this analysis is a forecast of North American gas production growth (including Western Canada) to 2025.

Growth of North American Gas Demand to 2025

Demand: (July 2017, 18 pages)

The report forecasts seven key individual North American gas demand sectors (residential, commercial, power generation, industrial, pipeline & lease fuel, US exports to Mexico, and transportation) out to 2025, each with its own market drivers. The forecast is further broken down into six primary US regions and Canada. The industrial and power generation sectors are expected to have the largest impact on overall demand growth. Impacting the industrial sector are liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which have recently started from the US Gulf Coast and will continue to drive growth going forward. Growth in the power generation sector results primarily from the shift in coal-fired generation to natural gas and renewables.

Western Gas Markets Supply-Demand Balance

Supply: (June 2017, 9 pages)

This topic report provides an overview of target markets and a forecast for Canadian gas exports by point to 2025. Expectations for market competition in regions where Western Canada gas competes are reviewed, and a regional supply-demand balance forecast is provided, including a forecast for Western Canada gas exports by export pipeline. Also discussed are expectations for east coast Canadian gas production and pipeline flows within the region.

US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2016

Supply: (May 2017, 12 pages)

Solomon’s US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2016 analyzes the proven oil and gas replacement performance of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in the “Lower 48” United States as well as of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in Canada. The results indicate that overall gas reserves replacement in the US Lower 48 was 119%, compared to a negative 175% in 2015, due to improved economics and well productivity improvements. Overall gas reserves placement reported by Canadian companies was 173%, almost twice the replacement recorded in 2014. The results also indicate that oil reserve replacement in the US was 110%, compared to a negative 45% in 2014. For Canada, the drop in forecasted oil prices led to reduced oil reserve replacement.

North American Economic Ranking – Natural Gas Basins

Supply: (March 2017, 18 pages)

This report delivers detailed insight into the cost components driving full-cycle costs and break-even natural gas prices by play. It is designed to help clients manage their asset portfolios—allocating capital to those gas plays that have the lowest break-even gas prices. The report may also be used for due diligence in evaluating acquisition opportunities.

Rockies Natural Gas Market Assessment 2016

Supply: (February 2017, 11 pages)

This report includes a forecast for the U.S. Rockies and Permian Basin gas-producing regions and addresses production, well connections, initial productivity, and typical decline rates. Also assessed is the forecast for regional demand growth by sector and potential flows into other North American regions and Mexico.

Renewable Power Outlook to 2025

Demand: (June 2016, 15 pages)

The Renewable Power Outlook to 2025 report provides a forecast for North America’s rapidly growing renewable power generation sector to 2025. The report focuses on the primary drivers of renewable generation and provides a detailed discussion of each of the five generation types: hydro, wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. It also addresses the impact of renewable power on natural gas-fired generation.

Gas Demand for Oil Sands to 2025

Demand: (February 2016, 15 pages)

This report analyzes more than 150 oil sands developments that have been announced or approved, are under construction, or are already producing and that require natural gas for process heat, upgrading, steam generation, or electric generation. The report represents a major revision of an earlier Solomon report on the same topic that was issued 10 years ago. It forecasts both oil sands production and related natural gas demand by major project over the next 10 years, addresses pipeline and rail export capacity, and shows how Solomon’s production forecast fits within the Alberta NDP government’s proposed emissions cap. Gas demand for the oil sands sector will account for over 2% of total North American gas demand in 2025.

Mexico Natural Gas Outlook to 2022

Demand: (July 2015, 9 pages)

This report provides Solomon’s forecast for the Mexican natural gas industry to 2022. It begins with an analysis of Mexico’s new regulatory framework and then moves on to a detailed analysis of demand and supply. Also covered are import requirements for the US Lower 48.

Impact of Low Oil Prices

Cost & Production: (March 2015, 13 pages)

This report analyzes the impact of lower oil prices not only on oil production but on full-cycle oil costs, the shut-in oil price, the economics of oil sands projects, cash flow for growth plays, and drilling. Also analyzed are lower natural gas liquid (NGL) revenues and the economics of liquefied natural gas (LNG) project economics. The size of the considerable resource in four key oil plays is assessed, demonstrating the long-lived low-cost potential of these plays.

Gas for Power Generation to 2022

Demand: (February 2015, 12 pages)

This report analyzes the growing role of natural gas in the North American power generation mix as environmental regulatory pressures continue to mount against coal. The report provides a forecast of power generation, by fuel type, to 2022 and discusses coal-to-gas switching, cost of new generation, and the rapid growth of non-hydro renewables such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. Lastly, it provides an illustration of the power generation fuel mix for six US regions and each Canadian province.

Pipeline Cost in North America

Pipeline: (June 2014, 10 pages)

This report analyzes capital costs for a new natural gas transportation infrastructure in Canada, the US, and Mexico. Our pipeline cost database incorporates 10 years of assessment data for more than 180 pipelines. The data show that the average estimated pipeline capital cost in 2014 has doubled since 2007. The US Northeast is the most expensive region for building new pipelines, with a typical cost 95% greater than the North American average. The higher cost is due to higher costs for steel, labor, and construction, as well as higher population density.

Pipeline Repurposing

Supply: (March 2014, 9 pages)

This report discusses the implications of growing shale production on the pipeline industry, including the conversion of natural gas pipelines to carriage of natural gas liquids (NGL) and oil. The report forecasts oil and NGL regional production growth, natural gas pipeline conversions into oil, and NGL use versus the growing supply. The US Northeast has traditionally been a substantial market for US Gulf Coast gas. However, supply growth in the US Northeast is creating opportunities for creation of new facilities, alteration of existing flows, and repurposing of existing infrastructure for alternative fuel service.

Shale Gas Production Outlook by Play to 2022

Supply: (February 2014, 9 pages)

This report analyzes North American shale basins and provides a forecast for shale gas development to 2022. Shale gas will expand to comprise more than 60% of North American gas production by 2022. Because oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids enhance the economics of drilling wells, most wells, including those drilled in Eagle Ford, SW Marcellus, Duvernay, and Utica, will be drilled for liquids.