Updated December 2017

Access to the report is limited to organizations that have subscribed to Solomon Strategic Energy Advisory Retainer Service. If you wish to receive a particular report, please contact Solomon Associates via email at Experts@SolomonOnline.com or call us at +1.403.234.4296.

Gas Price Basis Differentials Forecast to 2030

Updated October 2018

Price: (October 2018, 16 pages)

This report provides a forecast of North American natural gas price basis differentials for nine regional pricing points relative to Henry Hub to 2030. The forecast highlights changing regional flow patterns and provides in-depth discussions on changes to North American supply-demand allocations and explains the resulting impact on basis differentials going forward. The report also discusses the potential impact post-2020 tolling on the TransCanada Mainline will have on basis.

Henry Hub Gas Price Outlook to 2030

Updated October 2018

Price: (September 2018, 13 pages)

In this report, Solomon assesses Henry Hub pricing to 2030 using its proprietary price model and its understanding of North American full-cycle costs. Solomon believes that changing supply costs are a key influence on long-term natural gas prices in North America, and its assessment of natural gas prices takes into account both gas supply price drivers (factors that increase or decrease gas supply) and gas demand price drivers (factors that increase or decrease gas demand). Also analyzed within the report are macroeconomic assumptions (GDP, inflation) and the impact that the growing LNG export level will have on North American prices at Henry Hub.

Gas Production Outlook by Basin to 2030

Updated August 2018

Supply: (August 2018, 18 pages)

This report analyzes the major gas supply basins in the US “Lower 48” based on Solomon’s forecasting models for gas well productivity, decline, and production. This ground-up analysis of regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply is made available by assessing gas production at the basin level. The basins include Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Arkoma, Permian, and others. The result of this analysis is a forecast for North American gas production growth (including Western Canada) to 2030.

Back to the Future – Unlocking TransCanada Mainline Capacity

Updated August 2018

Supply: (August 2018, 10 pages)

Solomon’s Strategic Energy Advisory (SEA) Retainer Service has provided clients with an assessment titled Back to the Future – Unlocking TransCanada Mainline Capacity. The current National Energy Board (NEB) hearing on RH-001-2018, Application for the 2018–2020 Mainline Tolls, will decide tolls that will apply on the Mainline until the NEB-approved settlement (RH-001-2014) between the three large Ontario and Quebec local distribution companies (LDCs) expires in 2020. This report provides a forecast for long-haul TransCanada Mainline tolling post-2020. Understanding tolling post-2020 is of utmost importance to those making decisions regarding go/no-go drilling budgets, longer-term hedging, gas-plant and capital investments, and overall activity levels.

Growth of North American Gas Demand to 2030

Updated July 2018

Demand: (July 2018, 16 pages)

The report forecasts North American gas demand by sector and region to 2030 by examining seven key individual sectors (residential, commercial, power generation, industrial, pipeline & lease fuel, US exports to Mexico, and transportation). Specific market drivers for each sector are forecast, and insight is provided on a driver-by-driver basis. The forecast is further broken down into Canada (by province) and six primary US regions. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, part of the industrial sector, are expected to have the largest impact on overall demand growth. Growth in the power generation sector results primarily from the shift in coal-fired generation to natural-gas-fired power and renewables. Data in Excel™ format is available for SEA clients on Solomon’s SEA portal.

Worldwide LNG Outlook to 2030

Updated June 2018

LNG: (June 2018, 15 pages)

This report provides an overview and outlook for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand market as well as a synopsis on how growing North American export projects will contribute to global supply. Also included:

  • Forecast of global LNG demand market growth
  • Global LNG supply/demand balance
  • LNG market evolution:
    • North American projects linked to Henry Hub pricing
    • The demise of Japanese Crude Cocktail (JCC) pricing for new and re-contracted supply
  • Status of US and Canadian liquefaction projects

US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2017

Updated May 2018

Supply: (May 2018, 12 pages)

Solomon’s US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2017 analyzes the proven oil and gas replacement performance of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in the “Lower 48” United States as well as of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in Canada. The results indicate that the top 30 US gas producers reported 149 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) proved reserves at the end of 2017, a growth of 17% from 127 Tcf at year-end 2016. Overall US oil reserves replacement was 329% compared to 119% in 2016, due to price recovery, cost reduction, and improved productivity compared to the previous year. Overall Canadian oil reserves replacement was 201% compared to 173% in 2016.

Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook

Updated April 2018

Supply: (April 2018, 16 pages)

The Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook topic paper forecasts natural gas production, gas well connections, and new gas well productivity to 2025 for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). In addition to discussions of production by gas strategy area, a more detailed gas supply allocation is provided for the Montney, Duvernay, and Deep Basin plays. These areas, covering both the west-central area of Alberta and the northeast section of British Columbia, are experiencing increased industry activity, and ongoing production growth is expected.

US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025

Updated March 2018

Supply: (March 2018, 10 pages)

The US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025 topic paper focuses on the Northeast Appalachia region, which includes the Marcellus and Utica gas plays. Topics covered include Solomon’s gas resource estimate, Marcellus and Utica gas production, new gas well productivity, well connections forecasts, as well as predicted supply/demand balance to 2025. The topic paper also covers pipeline capacities, new pipelines, and pipeline expansions in the US Northeast.

Canadian Oil Forecast to 2025

Updated February 2018

Supply: (February 2018, 16 pages)

This report forecasts both oilsands and conventional oil production to 2025 in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and East Coast. It analyzes more than 150 oilsands developments that have been announced or approved, are under construction, or are already producing. This report addresses pipeline capacity, analyzes full-cycle cost for in-situ and mining oilsands production, and provides Solomon’s assessment of CO2 emissions. The report also includes a forecast for East Coast offshore production.

North American Natural Gas Liquids Production Outlook to 2025

Updated January 2018

Supply: (January 2018, 16 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American natural gas liquids (NGL) production to 2025 for the US “Lower 48” states and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Individual forecasts are provided for the major NGL-producing regions or play areas, including the Appalachia, Eagle Ford, and Permian. NGL production outlook to 2025 for Western Canada includes NGL resource locations, NGL production forecasts, propane supply sources, and propane supply-demand balances. The report also includes a summary of major recent NGL infrastructure projects, including propane export facilities and planned major chemical projects.

North American LNG Exports to 2025

Updated December 2017

LNG: (December 2017, 14 pages)

This report provides an overview of the rapidly expanding global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market to 2025. Its focus is on the main demand regions within Asia and the competition for growing supply additions. The report also details the status of numerous liquefaction proposals in both the US and Canada. It includes information on existing commercial offtake agreements and an analysis of the full-cycle costs of delivering LNG to markets.

North American Oil and Associated Gas

Updated November 2017

Supply: (November 2017, 18 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American oil and associated gas production that is based on three of Solomon’s forecast models: our decline, new oil well productivity, and production forecast models. The forecast covers the period to 2025 and focuses primarily on the major oil supply plays. Additional detail is provided for the major basins: Bakken, Permian, Niobrara, Eagle Ford, and Gulf of Mexico Deepwater. The report also includes detailed full-cycle cost analysis and resource assessment for the growth basins.

Western Gas Markets Supply-Demand Balance

Updated June 2017

Supply: (June 2017, 9 pages)

This topic report provides an overview of target markets and a forecast for Canadian gas exports by point to 2025. Expectations for market competition in regions where Western Canada gas competes are reviewed, and a regional supply-demand balance forecast is provided, including a forecast for Western Canada gas exports by export pipeline. Also discussed are expectations for east coast Canadian gas production and pipeline flows within the region.

North American Economic Ranking – Natural Gas Basins

Updated March 2017

Supply: (March 2017, 18 pages)

This report delivers detailed insight into the cost components driving full-cycle costs and break-even natural gas prices by play. It is designed to help clients manage their asset portfolios—allocating capital to those gas plays that have the lowest break-even gas prices. The report may also be used for due diligence in evaluating acquisition opportunities.

Rockies Natural Gas Market Assessment 2016

Updated February 2017

Supply: (February 2017, 11 pages)

This report includes a forecast for the U.S. Rockies and Permian Basin gas-producing regions and addresses production, well connections, initial productivity, and typical decline rates. Also assessed is the forecast for regional demand growth by sector and potential flows into other North American regions and Mexico.

Renewable Power Outlook to 2025

Updated June 2016

Demand: (June 2016, 15 pages)

The Renewable Power Outlook to 2025 report provides a forecast for North America’s rapidly growing renewable power generation sector to 2025. The report focuses on the primary drivers of renewable generation and provides a detailed discussion of each of the five generation types: hydro, wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. It also addresses the impact of renewable power on natural gas-fired generation.

Gas Demand for Oil Sands to 2025

Updated February 2016

Demand: (February 2016, 15 pages)

This report analyzes more than 150 oil sands developments that have been announced or approved, are under construction, or are already producing and that require natural gas for process heat, upgrading, steam generation, or electric generation. The report represents a major revision of an earlier Solomon report on the same topic that was issued 10 years ago. It forecasts both oil sands production and related natural gas demand by major project over the next 10 years, addresses pipeline and rail export capacity, and shows how Solomon’s production forecast fits within the Alberta NDP government’s proposed emissions cap. Gas demand for the oil sands sector will account for over 2% of total North American gas demand in 2025.

Mexico Natural Gas Outlook to 2022

Updated July 2015

Demand: (July 2015, 9 pages)

This report provides Solomon’s forecast for the Mexican natural gas industry to 2022. It begins with an analysis of Mexico’s new regulatory framework and then moves on to a detailed analysis of demand and supply. Also covered are import requirements for the US Lower 48.

Impact of Low Oil Prices

Updated March 2015

Cost & Production: (March 2015, 13 pages)

This report analyzes the impact of lower oil prices not only on oil production but on full-cycle oil costs, the shut-in oil price, the economics of oil sands projects, cash flow for growth plays, and drilling. Also analyzed are lower natural gas liquid (NGL) revenues and the economics of liquefied natural gas (LNG) project economics. The size of the considerable resource in four key oil plays is assessed, demonstrating the long-lived low-cost potential of these plays.

Gas for Power Generation to 2022

Updated February 2015

Demand: (February 2015, 12 pages)

This report analyzes the growing role of natural gas in the North American power generation mix as environmental regulatory pressures continue to mount against coal. The report provides a forecast of power generation, by fuel type, to 2022 and discusses coal-to-gas switching, cost of new generation, and the rapid growth of non-hydro renewables such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. Lastly, it provides an illustration of the power generation fuel mix for six US regions and each Canadian province.

Pipeline Cost in North America

Updated June 2014

Pipeline: (June 2014, 10 pages)

This report analyzes capital costs for a new natural gas transportation infrastructure in Canada, the US, and Mexico. Our pipeline cost database incorporates 10 years of assessment data for more than 180 pipelines. The data show that the average estimated pipeline capital cost in 2014 has doubled since 2007. The US Northeast is the most expensive region for building new pipelines, with a typical cost 95% greater than the North American average. The higher cost is due to higher costs for steel, labor, and construction, as well as higher population density.

Pipeline Repurposing

Updated March 2014

Supply: (March 2014, 9 pages)

This report discusses the implications of growing shale production on the pipeline industry, including the conversion of natural gas pipelines to carriage of natural gas liquids (NGL) and oil. The report forecasts oil and NGL regional production growth, natural gas pipeline conversions into oil, and NGL use versus the growing supply. The US Northeast has traditionally been a substantial market for US Gulf Coast gas. However, supply growth in the US Northeast is creating opportunities for creation of new facilities, alteration of existing flows, and repurposing of existing infrastructure for alternative fuel service.

Shale Gas Production Outlook by Play to 2022

Updated February 2014

Supply: (February 2014, 9 pages)

This report analyzes North American shale basins and provides a forecast for shale gas development to 2022. Shale gas will expand to comprise more than 60% of North American gas production by 2022. Because oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids enhance the economics of drilling wells, most wells, including those drilled in Eagle Ford, SW Marcellus, Duvernay, and Utica, will be drilled for liquids.