Closing North American LNG Arbitrage

Updated January 2020

The chart shows the influence of Henry Hub LNG exports on the Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) linked prices for LNG.

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Current and Planned LNG Liquefaction Capacity per Country

Updated January 2020

The chart shows actual and planned LNG liquefaction capacity per country. Planned capacity includes only projects which have received FIDs and are supposed to start operations before 2026.

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Growth in LNG Export & Import Countries

Updated January 2020

The figure shows the location of major liquefaction facilities and LNG shipping routes worldwide. The varying dot sizes indicate the facilities’ capacities. LNG is coming to European and East Asian markets primarily from the Middle East, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, and, recently, the United States.

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Asian LNG Demand

Updated January 2020

The chart shows historical LNG demand for the five main Asian regions through October 2019 and Solomon’s projection of growth to 2030.

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US Lower 48 LNG Projects

Updated January 2020

The figure shows US LNG projects. In the US, six facilities are currently operating:

  • Sabine Pass Trains 1–5
  • Freeport, TX
  • Cameron LNG, LA
  • Cove Point, MD 
  • Elba Island, GA
  • Corpus Christi, TX

The following projects are under construction:

  • Sabine Pass Train 6
  • Freeport, TX, Train 2-3
  • Cameron LNG, LA, Trains 2-3
  • Driftwood LNG, LA 
  • Calcasieu Pass, LA
  • Golden Pass, TX
  • Corpus Christi, TX, Train 3

Most of these volumes have firm offtake agreements.

  • Freeport LNG, TX, Train 4
  • Gulf LNG Liquefaction, Pascagoula, MS
  • Eagle LNG Partners, Jacksonville, FL
  • Venture Global LNG, Plaquemines Parish, LA
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Asian Power Capacity by Fuel Type

Updated January 2020

The chart shows the current and projected power generating capacity, by fuel type, for four Asian regions: China, India, Japan, and Korea.

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West Coast Canada LNG Exports

Updated January 2020

The figure shows Western Canadian LNG projects approved by the National Energy Board (NEB).

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Global LNG Supply and Demand

Updated January 2020

The chart illustrates existing (active and under construction) liquefaction capacity far outpacing projected demand through 2025.

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LNG Exports By Project

Updated October 2019

The chart provides Solomon’s forecast for LNG exports from North America by project during the forecast period.

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Global LNG Supply & Demand

Updated July 2018

The figure illustrates existing (active and under construction) and proposed global LNG liquefaction capacity far outpacing projected demand through 2030.

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LNG Premiums to Asia & Europe

Updated July 2018

The figure shows the 2025 full-cycle costs of delivering LNG to Asia and Europe from both Canadian and US projects. The arbitrage  opportunity that existed between North American and Asian markets at 100 USD/bbl oil prices was one of the key drivers behind the large number of proposed LNG export projects in both the US and Canada (the Asian gas price is 85% of the Japan Crude Cocktail oil price (JCC)). With the sharp drop in oil prices since the end of 2014, many of the proposed US and Canadian projects are challenged below an oil price of 70 USD/bbl on a full-cycle cost basis, although the arbitrage opportunity remains positive when competing directly with JCC on a Btu basis.

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Australian LNG Projects

Updated December 2017

This figure shows Australia’s LNG projects. Currently, Australia has seven operating LNG projects and three under construction. Other projects are also being considered.

Australia’s largest project is Gorgon, developed by Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell. The Greater Gorgon area field has more than 35 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of resources. Gorgon’s project capacity is 15 million tons per annum (MTPA). Project cost is 54 billion Australian dollars (B AUD). Gorgon shipped its first cargo in March 2016.

Another large Australian project is Wheatstone, with a capacity of 8.9 MTPA and budget of 34B AUD. Both Gorgon and Wheatstone include domestic gas plants. The majority of Australian LNG projects are supported by long-term contracts.

Figure Source: The Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association (APPEA)

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Russian LNG Supply

Updated December 2017

Russia has two LNG projects: Sakhalin 2 and Yamal. The Sakhalin 2 LNG project commenced operation in 2009. The project operator is Sakhalin Energy (Gazprom 50%, Shell 27.5%, Mitsui 12.5%, and Mitsubishi 10%). Sakhalin 2 LNG is part of a large project that includes oil and associated gas production from two Pultun-Astozhskoe offshore platforms plus gas and NGL from the Lunskoe Platform. All platforms are located in the northern region of the island of Sakhalin, while the LNG plant is located in the southern region, connected to production facilities by pipeline.

The Yamal LNG project includes three trains, which are expected to commence production from 2017 to 2019. The Yamal LNG project is owned by Novatek (50.1%), Total (20%), CNPC (20%), and Silk Road Find (9.9%). The majority of gas (86%) will be shipped to the Asia/Pacific region (mostly China) through the Bering Strait in summer and the Suez Canal in winter. Special LNG tankers will be required to operate in icy conditions without icebreakers. The remaining volume of gas will be shipped to Europe. The gas will come from the Yuzhoe-Tambeyskoe gas field located near the LNG plant in the port of Sabetta. This gas field has conventional gas developed by very productive vertical wells, which significantly reduces the cost of development.

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LNG Contract Expiries

Updated December 2017

This chart illustrates the volume in billions of cubic feet per day of long-term contracted LNG that is set to expire and is up for renewal. By 2026, one-third of current global demand will have expired and will need to be renewed.

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