2020 Canadian Gas Exports, Bcf/d

Updated July 2019

  • Based on 2020 forecast.
  • The gold represents gas consumed in Canada demand sectors.
  • The red represents supply coming from Western Canada and East Coast offshore. a
  • The green represents gas supplies being exported.
  • The blue represents gas imported into Canada, including LNG.
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Net Change in NA Demand and Flows, 2018–2030

Updated July 2019

As illustrated on the map, the North American pipeline grid is interconnected and responsive to changes in Henry Hub pricing.

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Eastern Canada Flow Dynamics

Updated July 2019

Western Canada, Ontario, and Quebec gas demand is primarily satisfied by supply from Western Canada production. In recent years, Ontario and Quebec have sourced natural gas from the United States, imported into Ontario via the Dawn Hub and more recently Niagara imports, as the pipeline grid and infrastructure have adapted to the least cost supply available, primarily from the Marcellus Shale Gas play.

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Western Canada Gas Transport

Updated July 2019

The figure shows the 5 main exits out of Western Canada, and Western Canada demand; all graphs have the same scale except for TransCanada’s Mainline.

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Proposed Pipeline Projects Connecting Westcoast LNG

Updated July 2019

New proposed gas pipelines connecting unconventional basins in WCSB with Kitimat and Prince Rupert.

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Impact of Converting Mainline to Oil

Updated July 2019

The TransCanada Mainline currently ships natural gas from Empress, Alberta to the US Midwest, US northeast and into Ontario and Quebec. A conversion from natural gas to crude service has been discussed.

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Transport Tolls to the Maritimes

Updated July 2019

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Marginal Tolls from AECO

Updated July 2019

AECO Basis is driven by TCPL Mainline toll.

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Netback Tolls to AECO 2021–2030

Updated July 2019

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Empress to North Bay Toll Forecast

Updated July 2019

The chart provides a forecast for tolls on the long-haul portion of the Mainline (Prairie and Northern Ontario Line) based on Solomon’s expectations for revenue requirements and flow forecast.

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Eastern Triangle Supply Sources

Updated July 2019

The chart provides an overview of supply sources to meet Eastern Triangle demands.

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Canadian Gas Supply-Demand Allocations

Updated July 2019

The chart illustrates the allocation of Canadian gas supplies and Central Canadian imports to their traditional gas markets through 2030 at Canadian border points.

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Canadian Gas Exports

Updated July 2019

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2018 Canadian Gas Exports, Bcf/d

Updated July 2019

  • Based on 2018 actual.
  • The gold represents gas consumed in Canada demand sectors.
  • The red represents supply coming from Western Canada and East Coast offshore.
  • The green represents gas supplies being exported.
  • The blue represents gas imported into Canada, including LNG.
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2030 Canadian Gas Exports, Bcf/d

Updated July 2019

  • Based on 2030 forecast.
  • The gold represents gas consumed in Canada demand sectors.
  • The red represents supply coming from Western Canada and East Coast offshore.
  • The green represents gas supplies being exported.
  • The blue represents gas imported into Canada, including LNG.
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Westcoast Pipeline System Station 2 Flows

Updated July 2019

With the increased focus on liquids-rich drilling in the BC Montney and poor ethane recovery economics, heating value at the inlet to the T-South portion of the Westcoast pipeline has grown significantly.

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2019 US Rockies Gas Supply-Demand Balance

Updated July 2019

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Proposed Permian Natural Gas Pipelines

Updated July 2019

The figure shows the four intrastate pipeline projects running from the Permian Basin relative to emerging LNG liquefaction demand on the Gulf Coast.

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Alliance Receipt Points

Updated July 2019

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Vector Pipeline

Updated July 2019

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Alliance Delivery Points

Updated July 2019

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TC Energy Mainline Flows at Empress

Updated July 2019

The chart provides Solomon’s forecast of Mainline flows at Empress by demand requirement.

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Northeast Out-of-Region Expansions

Updated July 2018

The figure highlights new pipeline capacity, providing an incremental 11.9 Bcf/d of out-of-region capacity on a subscribed basis from 2018 to 2020.

Due to significant increases in Appalachia supply and only modest growth in Appalachian demand, access to egress capacity exiting the region is required to monetize the gas resource.

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US Northeast Demand and Pipeline Capacity

Updated July 2018

The figure presents incremental pipeline development to 2021. Pipeline capacity shown has firm market support and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approvals.

  • Solomon expects excess pipeline capacity for most of the forecast period.
  • Tightness in exit pipeline capacity has been relieved as 2018–2019 projects under construction are put into service. However, without further development capacity for post-2021 supply growth, Solomon would expect tightness in exit pipeline capacity to return.
  • Cove Point LNG is now in service; potential to expand export capacity exists and could be developed later in the forecast period.
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Western Canadian Oil Export Pipelines

Updated December 2017

This figure shows Western Canada crude oil pipeline infrastructure and connectivity. Four major pipelines are directly connected to Canadian oil supply hubs at Edmonton and Hardisty, Alberta. Combined, they ship 95% of ex‑Western Canada oil (Statistics Canada, Supply & Disposition of Crude Oil & Equivalent):

  • Enbridge Mainline – dominant transporter (50%) of Alberta oil to US, with export capacity of 2,500 thousand barrels per day (M bbl/d); moves crude from Edmonton & Hardisty to Gretna, Manitoba export border point. From Gretna, oil moves to Superior, Wisconsin, splitting to Line 5 east to Sarnia, with the majority of the oil flowing south to the Chicago area via the Lakehead pipeline system.
  • TransCanada Keystone Pipeline – Alberta to Illinois. Completion of the Keystone Cushing Extension from Steele City, Nebraska to Cushing, Oklahoma in February 2011 increases total deliverable system capacity to 590M bbl/d, 24% of oil exports.
  • Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipeline – Edmonton, Alberta to British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, transports 300M bbl/d.
  • Kinder Morgan Express Pipeline – originates in Hardisty, Alberta with stated capacity of 280M bbl/d feeding into Platte system. Both Kinder Morgan systems jointly contribute 21% of US Western Canada oil imports (remaining 5% is composed of Milk River & Plains Rangeland).
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Average Pipeline Project Capital Cost, USD/in-mi

Updated December 2017

Solomon‘s cost analysis of 180 pipeline projects dates back to 2004, as shown in the figure. Average estimated cost for proposed pipeline projects in North America is double the cost in 2007 due to higher steel, labor, and other costs. Huge investments will be required in North America pipeline infrastructure, particularly in the Northeast region, where gas is growing quickly due to low full-cycle costs. The US Northeast has the highest average pipeline costs. Western Canada experienced significantly higher pipeline costs than in prior years. New pipeline systems are required to move US Shale gas supplies to the US Gulf Coast and Mexico. These are large-diameter (up to 48-inch) pipelines with overall capital costs ranging from 0.2MM USD to 3B USD, adding over 2,000 miles of new pipe to existing gas pipeline infrastructure by 2017 if all projects are completed. Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission has announced five new pipeline projects.

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2005 Canadian Gas Exports, Bcf/d

Updated December 2017

  • Based on 2005 actual.
  • The red represents supply coming from Western Canada and East Coast offshore.
  • The green represents gas supplies being exported.
  • The gold represents gas consumed in Canada demand sectors.
  • The blue represents gas imported into Canada.
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2009 Canadian Gas Exports, Bcf/d

Updated December 2017

  • Based on 2009 actual.
  • The red represents supply coming from Western Canada and East Coast offshore.
  • The green represents gas supplies being exported.
  • The gold represents gas consumed in Canada demand sectors.
  • The blue represents gas imported into Canada, including LNG.
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2012 Canadian Gas Exports, Bcf/d

Updated December 2017

  • Based on 2012 actual.
  • The red represents supply coming from Western Canada and East Coast offshore.
  • The green represents gas supplies being exported.
  • The gold represents gas consumed in Canada demand sectors.
  • The blue represents gas imported into Canada, including LNG.
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2016 Canadian Gas Exports, Bcf/d

Updated December 2017

  • Based on 2016 actual.
  • The red represents supply coming from Western Canada and East Coast offshore.
  • The green represents gas supplies being exported.
  • The gold represents gas consumed in Canada demand sectors.
  • The blue represents gas imported into Canada, including LNG.
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Montney/Deep Basin Area: Map of Facilities and Pipelines

Updated December 2017

This figure shows major pipelines and facilities in the Montney/Duvernay basin area. It includes NGL/Liquids extraction facilities, sulphur recovery, acid gas flaring and injection facilities, sweet, and other facilities.

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